Just hours after I penned this piece, I hear that Angela Merkel has doubled down on the tough EU negotiating position. She is reported to have told Leo Varadkar, “ . . a hard border has to be on the table in a no-deal Brexit scenario”. My thesis is that this simply makes the current position even more difficult for the Mrs. May and the UK. The EU however do have the solution and they can stop the madness.
Many of will us have experienced trauma in our lives. Through the loss of loved ones or friends; or failure of business, loss of jobs, perhaps a major incident or accident. However, fortunately few of us have experienced trauma with widespread impact such as war, famine or pandemic. Similarly, few of us have observed the strange period that precedes major changes such as war or pandemic. And so, it’s with something approaching horror that we watch, day by day, as the United Kingdom in chaos accelerates towards the cliff edge of Brexit, with unknowable consequences that will surely result in major trauma for the UK itself, and also for us bystanders.
A nervous or mental breakdown is a term used to describe a period of intense mental distress and it seems as if the UK is having a grand mal. Although “nervous breakdown” is no longer considered a medical term, it’s still used by many to describe intense symptoms of stress and an inability to cope with life’s challenges; the inability to function in your everyday life.
It’s very much a Groundhog-day experience. Every day we observe the UK digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole. Every day politicians, journalists, commentators report on how non-existent negotiations are not proceeding. How the negotiating parties have reached deadlock and how there as many opinions in parliament as there are MPs. We observe Mrs. May executing a strategy that rests on doing nothing until the VERY last minute at which point she is sure the EU will blink notwithstanding extensive analysis that says the exact opposite. At the same time, we are becoming increasingly familiar with the probable impacts of the default “no deal” which become increasingly scary.
No one, apart perhaps for the UK gutter press, now believes the EU will be blamed for the “no deal” outcomes. It’s completely obvious that the UK is at war with itself. It’s a very modern form of civil war. In our modern world everyone has a voice, but no one is heard. And it appears that no one is actually saying “STOP!” Or maybe we can’t hear them above the cacophony.
Today it seems the best outcome that can be hoped for is a delay in the March 29th deadline. But why would the EU 27 agree to that because it would surely just prolong the agony and indecision. The UK is deeply divided across party lines, across country and across society. Any outcome is likely to cause huge unrest and continuing division. It’s clear that the UK is in the midst of a major nervous breakdown and something really big must happen to resolve it.
Continuing the analogy of the nervous breakdown it seems the UK actually needs advice that it is incapable of giving itself. Let’s consider a scenario in which the EU, all 27 countries agree to recommend the UK delays Article 50 as a process timeout, which may be restarted at a time of the UK’s choosing when the UK has decided on the best course of action with agreement of both parliament and the people. In other words, give the UK the time and space to think hard about what it wants to do. Consult the people, develop detailed plans. In fact, recover its sense and act like the world has become accustomed to seeing the UK — as a bastion of good sense and stability.
Up to now, all the commentary has been about whether the EU will negotiate; whether they will make nonsensical changes to the Withdrawal Agreement just to allow the UK to continue into the next phase of this ridiculous process — to negotiate the trade agreement. We must conclude that the EU want to spend the next two years negotiating with this bunch of clowns like they want a hole in the head. So, while Mrs. May would probably not want to incur a delay, it’s high probability that the UK Parliament would vote for that process timeout with an overwhelming majority. The alternative is unthinkable.